Abstract: in the 1 ton cobalt acid lithium, lithium content is only 0.07 tons, but the content of cobalt to 0.61 tons, is more than 8 times of lithium. Content of cobalt in the earth‘s crust, however, only six points clear of lithium cobalt 一, years production is only half of lithium, from this perspective, the cobalt in the medium to longer term will be one of the bottleneck of the lithium battery costs.

Compared with lithium, cobalt in the current lithium battery cathode material is more widely applied. According to estimation, 1 ton cobalt acid lithium, lithium content of only 0.07 tons, but the content of cobalt to 0.61 tons, is more than 8 times of lithium. Content of cobalt in the earth‘s crust, however, only six points clear of lithium cobalt 一, years production is only half of lithium, from this perspective, the cobalt in the medium to longer term will be one of the bottleneck of the lithium battery costs.

Containing cobalt anode materials include two types: cobalt acid lithium and ternary material, the former is common in the various kinds of small batteries, widely used in mobile phones and laptop computers, the latter in the broad prospects in the new energy vehicles.

2 small batteries on smoke cobalt acid lithium is still interesting

The current view, small batteries used in mobile phones and laptops are mainly cobalt acid lithium, due to its high content of cobalt, cobalt occupies a large part of the annual usage. Its main advantage lies in the structure stability, mature technology, high specific capacity. But at the same time, by cobalt and bring high cost is always a big problem.

Spinel lithium manganese acid was produced in 1981, is considered one of the ideal material of the future to replace cobalt acid lithium, its better security and more environmental protection raw material makes it popular. What is more important manganese cobalt prices are much lower, and thus widely popular. But the technology is still immature, the process of this change still needs a long time.

3 an uptick in power battery Ternary material step by step to "win"

For new energy car power battery, ternary material with high capacity is the biggest bright spot, this has great utility for improving the user experience, therefore with cobalt and the high cost is affordable. The current competition with ternary material mainly by the lithium iron phosphate, its advantage is low cost, but the corresponding low capacitance, it is difficult to replace the ternary material in terms of passenger car.

The current domestic including the main producers of positive electrode materials in the byd, hunan rui xiang, when the rise of science and technology, etc. Among them, the byd (002594 SZ) to give priority to dozen of products of lithium iron phosphate, when science and technology (300073 SZ) is focused on the ternary material. The rest of all is "full flowering" strategy, product materials from cobalt acid lithium to three yuan, on the choice of material in the future remains cautious.

Refer to Japanese and Korean enterprises, the lithium battery products have been given priority to with the ternary material. World‘s largest producer of lithium battery panasonic, for example, delivery for tesla‘s model 18650 lithium-ion batteries, the use of the anode material is the ternary lithium nickel and cobalt aluminate (NCA). Can say for now, the ternary material represents the development direction of lithium battery cathode material in the future.

4 the price increase of cobalt downstream enterprises

Relative to the lithium iron phosphate, three yuan a disadvantage is the cost of materials. Despite the long-term bullish on its development, cobalt prices rose too much can bring a twist this expectation. Since January 2015, battery grade lithium carbonate price rising, from 40000 yuan/ton to 170000 yuan/ton level. In the same year the cost of the lithium battery cathode material occupies 30% of the total cost of lithium-ion batteries, accompanied by 2016 to further improve the anode material cost, battery costs will continue to be a rising tide lifts all boats.

In 2015 in the 13 major new energy models, three yuan material car generally low capacitance, its electric capacity of about 30 KWH. Ternary material can be divided into internal NCM333 NCM523, NCM622, NCA different types, such as between the electric capacity and the demand for cobalt is different, in the long term, unit of the anode material of electric capacity will continue to improve quality, at the same time, the average car of cobalt consumption is expected to decline.

Reference byd e5 comfort, 43 KWH of electricity capacity, price 230000 yuan, 40 KWH capacity of electric vehicles can be sold for 200000 yuan, reference 30 KWH of new energy vehicles cobalt 7.54 kg, 40 KWH of car can reach 10.05 kg per cobalt demand. The new energy automotive industry gross margin of 25%, roughly can estimate the cost is about 150000 yuan. According to new energy industry international 2015 lithium electricity peak BBS interviews shows that the current battery costs about 1400 yuan/kWh, a total of 56000 yuan, accounting for 37% of the whole cost, other cost is RMB 94000.

According to the cobalt price movements since January 2005, the current price of cobalt has reached a record low, the proportion of the total cost of new energy vehicles principals cobalt is very small, so the effect of cobalt price rose sharply on the downstream is not obvious, even if prices rose 500%, the downstream is only gross margins fell from 25% to 17%, the cobalt price space is still huge, so to speak.

5 risk warning

New energy vehicles growth slows, lithium carbonate prices stay high for a long time, the lithium iron phosphate technology breakthrough.